A new monetary policy framework for japan part 2

Nonetheless, nominal GDP targeting includes a few technical issues that make it problematic for a central bank to utilize it operationally, including frequent revisions of GDP data, insufficient monthly GDP data, and the release of GDP data with a lag. These issues are very relevant in Japan because the GDP revisions tend to be large and the first GDP estimate is released with an extended lag (after one . 5 months for the first estimate). A nominal GDP target could also wrongly supply the public the impression that the central bank has the capacity to raise potential GDP growth. The federal government may exert strain on the central bank if nominal economic growth isn’t sufficient. Nominal GDP targeting may undermine the government’s incentive to improve potential economic growth through structural reforms and economic growth strategies.

JAPAN government introduced nominal GDP targeting in 2015 with the numerical target of around 600 trillion yen by 2020. In late 2016, a significant revision on the machine of National Accounts (SNA) was made which added about 32 trillion yen to Japan’s nominal GDP in fiscal year 2015. This upward revision has managed to get easier for the federal government to attain its target. Nonetheless, the mark of 600 trillion yen remains challenging since it requires the average rate of nominal GDP growth around 3% in 2018-2020 – higher compared to the average rate of 2% in 2013-2017 (Figure 2). Moreover, the nominal GDP target is a lot higher than the IMF’s projection of April 2018. Moreover, the adoption of nominal GDP targeting seems to have limited effect on inflation aswell as on inflation and growth expectations in Japan as a result of insufficient concrete measures to attain the target. The media and the general public hardly focus on the nominal GDP target, which implies too little credibility.

Figure 2 Japan’s government nominal GDP target and IMF projections (trillion yen)

Learn more →

A new paradigm for the introductory course in economics

A new paradigm for the introductory course in economics

The paradigm that motivates CORE draws upon these insights to greatly help us to comprehend how prices, wages and interest levels and the amount of inequality are determined and the way the aggregate economy functions.

Does the main one year CORE introductory course prepare students for the typical curriculum in subsequent years?

It really is taught at UCL by Antonio Cabrales and Wendy Carlin, Sciences Po by Yann Algan and at the Toulouse School of Economics by Christian Gollier. At UCL, we compared the exam results for the unchanged standard second year courses of cohorts that had taken the CORE course and that hadn’t. Within their intermediate micro and macro sequence, CORE students did markedly much better than previous cohorts. (There is no change in the student performance in second-year econometrics, dispelling any thoughts that the CORE cohort was simply brighter!). That is far from the only method to evaluate the brand new curriculum; nonetheless it is encouraging. Our interpretation is that the CORE cohort was more engaged with economics and worked up about going on.

Learn more →

A new measure of us gdp

The starting place of our analysis may be the inescapable fact that both GDPE and GDPI are observations of the same underlying ‘true’ GDP, which also contain measurement errors. Thus, denoting the measurement errors by εt E and εt I , we write

which constitute the measurement equations of the state space representation of a dynamic factor model, where GDP is a latent factor. We also specify a transition equation for GDP that presents the way the true GDP evolves as time passes.

The typical approach in a dynamic factor model is always to assume that the innovations to GDP and the measurement errors are mutually uncor. However, this is really not so realistic for our application. First, the measurement errors in GDPE and GDPI tend positively cor. There is some overlap in the estimates, with government output plus some the areas computed identically. Moreover, the same deflator can be used for conversion from nominal to real magnitudes, so any measurement error in the purchase price deflator or the regions of overlap will be perfectly positively cor over the estimates. Second, the measurement errors in GDPE and GDPI tend cor with the innovations to true GDP. Nalewaik (2010) implies that the statistical discrepancy (GDPE minus GDPI) is cor with the business enterprise cycle, implying that at least among the measurement error innovations is cor with innovations to true GDP. 4 Enabling the three innovations to be arbitrarily cor makes the model – and, thus, the real GDP – unidentified.

Learn more →

A new measure of the global middle class

There is absolutely no widely accepted definition of what constitutes the center class, and the most frequent means of measuring its growth – through looking at rises in income – have problems with several flaws. Reflecting rapid growth and low degrees of initial income, the center class in the developing world is obviously rising (Dadush and Shaw 2011).

  • The narrowest classification defines middle income as individuals with money near or above the median income in advanced countries – roughly $31,000 per capita or $85 a trip to US prices.

No more than 12% of the world’s population lives in countries whose average per capita income is greater than that threshold, and only an extremely tiny minority in developing countries would qualify. Moreover, that degree of income is approximately seven times what marketing studies suggest is required to buy an automobile.

  • The hottest measure of the center class was proposed in 2002 by Branko Milanovic and Shlomo Yitzhaki, who counted people who have daily incomes between roughly $10 and $50, after adjusted for purchasing-power parity (Milanovic and Yitzhaki 2002).

If one uses this definition, there are around 369 million people in the developing G20 economies who qualify as "middle income."

Learn more →

A new measure of openness

A new way of measuring openness

Jean Imbs, Laurent Pauwels

Contact with foreign shocks is often regarded as highly reliant on foreign trade and measures of openness usually build exclusively on measures of direct trade. This column argues that in an environment of global value chains, concentrating on direct trade provides distorted view of the contact with foreign shocks. It proposes a fresh way of measuring openness which computes the fraction of gross output sold to downstream customers located abroad. This measure finds most sectors to become more open which increased openness is estimated to cause rises in productivity and contagion, without observable effects on growth.

Learn more →

A new measure of economic asymmetries in the eurozone

A new way of measuring economic asymmetries in the Eurozone

Nauro Campos, Corrado Macchiarelli

Explanations for the Eurozone Crisis depend on the idea of cross-country asymmetries. The core-periphery pattern to the EU was initially established by Bayoumi and Eichengreen in 1993, before the Eurozone. This column replicates their method of explore if the euro has strengthened or weakened this pattern. A fresh ‘coreness index’ indicates that the core-periphery pattern has weakened, and a new, smaller periphery has emerged.

Learn more →